early look saturday at oak tree

[mazeltrick]

only one week to go before i head out to the track for BC day. in the meantime, the fields are short and the racing is, well, not all that exciting.

r6: vencedora amiga. absolutely love lobo with these types. daughter of broad brush should love the distance and the surface and need only improve off her last to threaten. the inside draw and the leading man make her the play for me in here.

r7: saint buddy. most likely winner on the card as this son of saint ballado appears to be ripening as the year wears on. although he didn't beat anything in this del mar maiden breaker, the best is yet to come for the becerra trainee. the only thing stopping me from unloading is the addition of blinkers- i really don't like equipment changes after a dominating victory.

r8: presumption. i hope he's a case of a colt who just didn't like fairplex. obviously cooperation is the horse to beat, but at odds on, who needs the aggravation. baffert has been ice cold this meet, so i'm looking to play against him. presumption gets back to a mile oval and should go much better around one corner in here.

r9: royal obsession i never thought sise was great with debut runners, but his stats are very good. this daughter of royal academy should love the turf and this longer sprint distance. not sure what the price is, but she's my pick.

good luck.

 

[sammythesage]

Mazel, what do you think on the juicing of horses? Does it go on and if so how. If you get the feeling it might be happening in a certain race; do skip it or just go ahead aspend the extra money and put him in? How'd you do on the p-6 yesterday as I know you played? nice payoff that's for sure.

 

[mazeltrick]

sammy,

juicing horses certainly happens as trainers look to make a score. my good faith belief is that the top trainers who condition the classiest horses generally don't dope their horses up as the penalty for getting caught is extremely stiff (not so much in the monetary/suspension sense, but primarily b/c a conviction will make it nearly impossible for those trainers to get the top horses in the future- the very well to do owners don't want to be associated with cheaters). therefore, doping usually occurs in claimerville, the cheaper the horse, the more likely there is that some funny business is going on. if you get the feeling it might be happening, pass the race, or if your source is reliable, bet the horse. i have heard a lot of rumors and innuendo in my day, and i've found them to be quite unreliable.

as for the pick-6, i played it, and despite violating one of my more fundamental handicapping tenets (don't bet a horse trying to route and turf for the first time UNLESS he's bred up and down for it), i singled sunny outcome in the sixth. while julie did not give him a very good ride (in fact, fogelsonger plain outrode the hall-of-famer ms. krone), 'outcome was not a standout and at 3/5 was horrible value. i did manage to come up with 5/6, so we ended up ok, but no big score.

 

[bolivar]

In r8 I love #5 poresumption as you do. Pairing him also with #7 because of PVal mostly. Got anything better that that you think to go with presumption.

appreciate all that you do

Bo

 

[mazeltrick]

bolivar,
not really anyone else i like. they all look about the same to me; rush to heaven lost all chanse last time and could go better, obviously cooperation will be chalk, and the herc has got some serious gas, so he merits a look. it's a wide wide open race.

 

[mazeltrick]

poor performance today guys. the lobo maiden had a bit of tight trip, but she'll win next out- put her on the list. saint buddy ran very poorly, never allowed to roll on the lead and just spit the bit at the top of the lane. presumption just plain not as fast as the top two finishers- there's a reason cooperation was running today instead of next saturday in the BC juvenille; he was a great bet against at 3/5, but i did not have the right horse. the finale was pitiful. royal obsession ran like she wasn't ready to roll first out. shame as my second choice holy hazel ran a suck-up second at 13/1 and i don't have the exacta. i'll peruse for tomorrow.